Iowa Predictions

bdeakin can confirm this: I thought it'd be Edwards, Obama, and Clinton on one side and Huckabee, Romney, McCain on the other. I was off by a bit on the Democratic side, although good for me for calling Clinton third. I was off by around 250 votes on the Republican side, which was Thompson's margin of victory over McCain.

Huckabee probably rides this to a decent third place showing in New Hampshire. Romney needs to win New Hampshire, but I don't think he will. I think McCain takes it, Romney comes in second and is increasingly marginalized, and the remainder of the primary process is the fight between McCain and Huckabee. I'm biased here because I think that would be a completely amusing race.

Edwards is in trouble. A strong second place showing would have been very good; a close race with Clinton for second place is not so good. He needs to come in second in New Hampshire, preferably by a big margin, and Clinton needs to come in third again. But I sort of think it'll be Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third, and that sets the stage for Obama to win out.

I reserve the right to repredict on Monday.

Addendum:

This is a picture of why Edwards is in trouble. Third in union households, did poorly among self-identified liberals -- the guy came in second thanks to self-identified conservatives and wealthier voters. Which is weird, because that's not the campaign he's running, but for whatever reason his populist message isn't getting over.