Iowa Predictions

[bryant]

bdeakin can confirm this: I thought it'd be Edwards, Obama, and Clinton on one side and Huckabee, Romney, McCain on the other. I was off by a bit on the Democratic side, although good for me for calling Clinton third. I was off by around 250 votes on the Republican side, which was Thompson's margin of victory over McCain.

Huckabee probably rides this to a decent third place showing in New Hampshire. Romney needs to win New Hampshire, but I don't think he will. I think McCain takes it, Romney comes in second and is increasingly marginalized, and the remainder of the primary process is the fight between McCain and Huckabee. I'm biased here because I think that would be a completely amusing race.

Edwards is in trouble. A strong second place showing would have been very good; a close race with Clinton for second place is not so good. He needs to come in second in New Hampshire, preferably by a big margin, and Clinton needs to come in third again. But I sort of think it'll be Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third, and that sets the stage for Obama to win out.

I reserve the right to repredict on Monday.

Addendum:

This is a picture of why Edwards is in trouble. Third in union households, did poorly among self-identified liberals -- the guy came in second thanks to self-identified conservatives and wealthier voters. Which is weird, because that's not the campaign he's running, but for whatever reason his populist message isn't getting over.

Comments

[jeffwik.livejournal.com]

I'm going to go ahead and agree with you there.

[jeffwik.livejournal.com]

the guy came in second thanks to self-identified conservatives and wealthier voters. Which is weird,

Not weird. He's the white guy.

[telepresence.livejournal.com]

I think a lot of the people inclined to respond emotionally to a populist message are going Obama this time around, his rhetoric presses a lot of the same buttons.

I'm also really interested by the way the "Romney is a phony" meme/talking point is gaining traction with commentators across the political spectrum. It's clearly being pumped by his opponents, and the news media likes it because it lets them seem probing and confrontational without doing any real work. Now, I happen to believe the sentiment is true, I don't think Romney has a genuine political or moral conviction in his entire body, but it's still fascinating to watch unfold mechanically.

[telepresence.livejournal.com]

Weird in the sense it's not the demographic his campaign aims for. But yeah, he may wind up being left with not much more than the people who want to vote Democrat but can't quite wrap their heads around a woman/black guy for Pres.

[halfway-back.livejournal.com]

There is a snippet somewhere that Edwards is in a better position because he was the top second choice candidate. Now I have to find it. I think it's CNN or something.

[halfway-back.livejournal.com]

Look at the Republican exit poll numbers.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#val=IAREP

Huckabee much?

[ogier30.livejournal.com]

In terms of actual delagates, though, it's Obama (16), Clinton (15), and Edwards (14).

The bigger surprise, I think, is Ron Paul actually picking up 2 delegates.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

What jumped out at me are these two fields: 60% ID as Evangelicals, 40% not. ~60% think religion of candidate is important or somewhat important, ~40% think not so much.

There's the split in the GOP right there between the theocons and the neocons. It'll be interesting to see who comes out on top in this war for the party's soul...

[gentlyepigrams]

Also, there are Democrats out there who will find black guy/woman a positive if they can't find a better reason to pick among the three.

[halfway-back.livejournal.com]

Convention time will be a hoot.

If Obama pulls through and gets the nomination, the Republicans are going to be in a bind. There is no one as exciting as Obama on the Republican side. And while I would like McCain to grab the bid (and actually make it feel like I have a real choice for once), that's not going to happen. I think a Romney nomination win will drive the theocons to a third party candidate or to sit out. A Huckabee nomination keeps the theocons but loses the moderate to left Republicans to Obama (or possibly Edwards but certainly not Clinton). McCain has the only real chance to keep both theocons and neocons in the party, but I don't think he's going to get the nod, sadly.

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

I'm sorry, but i have a hard time seeing a populist message carrying much weight from a guy who made his millions as a trial lawyer.

Also, i wonder just how well Huckabee will do outside of Jesusland. And i'm absolutely tickled that Giuliani finished behind Ron Paul.

[bryant]

New Hampshire will be interesting. I tend to think that national media lumps it in with Massachusetts and Connecticut: "Oh, yeah, New England is an urban liberal area." But New Hampshire's essentially rural plus a bunch of people who commute to Boston to work.

The trial lawyer background may be why the populist message isn't sticking. Note that I'm not saying I think Edwards is a populist; I just think he's running as one. Or it may be that the haircut smears are an effective blocker. Or something else entirely.