Nevada

[bryant]

This is a tricky one. But whatever, I've been dumb so far.

Romney wins on the Republican side. Nevada is a local stronghold for him, second probably only to Utah. I'd figure McCain, then Huckabee after Romney. Rudy will slip below Huckabee.

Edwards will come in third among the Democrats. (There, that was easy.) I have a really hard time handicapping Nevada because it's a caucus and it isn't a state that obsesses about caucuses, like Iowa does. But... I think Clinton over Obama.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Huckabee should win it. McCain will come in second. Romney will come in third. Fred Thompson will come in fourth, and trumpet it as a victory. All that leaves the field a complete mess on the Republican side, with McCain the increasingly likely establishment candidate.

Comments

[gentlyepigrams]

Isn't the whole kerfluffle about the teachers' lawsuit over the casino caucuses about the fact that the casino unions have endorsed Obama and the teacher's unions have endorsed Clinton? Does that play into your analysis?

[bryant]

Yep, and Obama won that fight, but I'm just not sure I'm convinced that the unions will successfully get out the vote in a caucus situation. Also, Las Vegas has a seven day workweek -- it's not as if casino workers are going to take the afternoon off to spend a couple of hours voting. If it was a primary, my read would be different.

[gentlyepigrams]

If it were a primary, it would limit the need for the fighting.

I don't have a read on the situation at all, but I'm not convinced there's just a proxy fight between the campaigns there. The little digging I did makes me wonder if that's not also about influence at the state level, too.

[halfway-back.livejournal.com]

Fred Thompson will come in fourth, and trumpet it as a victory.

He's the biggest hype-to-dud since New Coke.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

"Fred Thompson will come in fourth, and trumpet it as a victory. "

::snerk:: Is he even still ALIVE, let alone campaigning?

[cityofbeige.livejournal.com]

Giuliani will come in dead last, claim it as a victory, AND half the pundits on teevee will claim that "he still has a shot".

[death-by-monkey.livejournal.com]

Tru dat, brother. The only reason he hasn't pulled out of the race yet is that he's desperately waiting to see if all those NY retirees in FL come out to vote for him.

[death-by-monkey.livejournal.com]

I don't know - I think if Romney beats McCain in Nevada it won't be by much. As one of Arizona's neighbor's, I think there's strong support for McCain there. I could be wrong, though.

And I think the casino caucus issue -will- play to Obama's favor and I think he'll pull a narrow victory over Clinton. Not a big victory, but even narrow victories these days are practically being heralded as "mandates".

South Carolina's never been kind to McCain. I think there will still be some folks clinging to the rumors that Bush's campaign spread there about McCain back in 2000...so I'm tempted to say he'll come up third...but then even if Romney is Republican, he's still a Yankee's Yankee to South Carolinians. I say Huckabee takes it handily and Romney and McCain take second and third pretty close together.

[death-by-monkey.livejournal.com]

Good call on Clinton and Romney in Nevada.

But McCain takes SC? I really didn't see that coming. And Fred Thompson beating out Romney? Hokey smokes, Bullwinkle! As an evangelical, if Huckabee can't take South Carolina, he certainly can't go the distance.

Whoah - backing up to Nevada as I take a closer look at the results, Ron Paul came in second? WTF? Beating out McCain? Wacky.

Interestingly on the Democrat side, though - again, even though Clinton won it, Obama's coming away with more delegates. It's a narrow margin, but it's keeping Obama ahead with the delegates. Maybe it's just because this is the first election that I've understood the role of delegates, but I'm really surprised that the news outlets aren't discussing the delegate scene more.

And why is Giuliani staying in this thing?