Nevada

[bryant]

This is a tricky one. But whatever, I've been dumb so far.

Romney wins on the Republican side. Nevada is a local stronghold for him, second probably only to Utah. I'd figure McCain, then Huckabee after Romney. Rudy will slip below Huckabee.

Edwards will come in third among the Democrats. (There, that was easy.) I have a really hard time handicapping Nevada because it's a caucus and it isn't a state that obsesses about caucuses, like Iowa does. But... I think Clinton over Obama.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, Huckabee should win it. McCain will come in second. Romney will come in third. Fred Thompson will come in fourth, and trumpet it as a victory. All that leaves the field a complete mess on the Republican side, with McCain the increasingly likely establishment candidate.

Comments

[gentlyepigrams]

Isn't the whole kerfluffle about the teachers' lawsuit over the casino caucuses about the fact that the casino unions have endorsed Obama and the teacher's unions have endorsed Clinton? Does that play into your analysis?

[bryant]

Yep, and Obama won that fight, but I'm just not sure I'm convinced that the unions will successfully get out the vote in a caucus situation. Also, Las Vegas has a seven day workweek -- it's not as if casino workers are going to take the afternoon off to spend a couple of hours voting. If it was a primary, my read would be different.

[gentlyepigrams]

If it were a primary, it would limit the need for the fighting.

I don't have a read on the situation at all, but I'm not convinced there's just a proxy fight between the campaigns there. The little digging I did makes me wonder if that's not also about influence at the state level, too.