Home Stretch
Jan. 24th, 2008 04:31 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
bryantA little less than two weeks until Super Tuesday. We'll come out of that one knowing who the nominee is going to be on both sides.
Huckabee is out of cash, and his campaign is not holding on. Short of a very surprising result in Florida, he's out of it. Even with a boost in Florida, he's low on money and won't have the cash to campaign across Super Tuesday's states.
That leaves Romney and McCain. Either can continue past a strong second place finish in Florida. McCain appears to be picking up votes from the Giuliani collapse. I don't know who's benefiting from Thompson's departure; Thompson's image as an heir to Reagan doesn't match well with the maverick McCain or the governor who presided over universal health care... but if I had to bet I'd say Romney gets those votes, and Florida polling bears that out.
But! Romney is not going to get a lot of Huckabee's voters. So when Huckabee's support slips away, that'll help McCain.
Who wins Florida? I dunno, it's neck and neck. Romney and McCain are both trending upwards. To maintain my record of flawed predictions: McCain. And I expect McCain to win the big Super Tuesday states.
Meanwhile, the Democratic primaries are simply weird. Florida votes don't count, since Florida lost its delegates for having an early primary. So who cares? Not Obama, who's focusing on South Carolina. Clinton wins Florida by a lot. (Edwards is still third.) Meanwhile, Obama clearly wins South Carolina, but he's supposed to do that, so will people care? I dunno. The only drama there is whether or not Edwards overtakes Clinton for second place, which seems unlikely. In fact, I predict it doesn't happen.
After that it's Super Tuesday. Clinton has huge leads in New York, New Jersey, and California. Obama ought to do well in Illinois, but that's 153 delegates compared to the 709 represented by the other three states. Excellent showings in the southern states help make up for that, but not enough.
Which means I don't see how Obama can come out of Super Tuesday on top barring very sudden changes in the landscape over the next week and a half. Which can happen, but... unlikely.
Thus: McCain vs. Clinton in the general, with a moderate degree of confidence. Will revise post-Florida.
Huckabee is out of cash, and his campaign is not holding on. Short of a very surprising result in Florida, he's out of it. Even with a boost in Florida, he's low on money and won't have the cash to campaign across Super Tuesday's states.
That leaves Romney and McCain. Either can continue past a strong second place finish in Florida. McCain appears to be picking up votes from the Giuliani collapse. I don't know who's benefiting from Thompson's departure; Thompson's image as an heir to Reagan doesn't match well with the maverick McCain or the governor who presided over universal health care... but if I had to bet I'd say Romney gets those votes, and Florida polling bears that out.
But! Romney is not going to get a lot of Huckabee's voters. So when Huckabee's support slips away, that'll help McCain.
Who wins Florida? I dunno, it's neck and neck. Romney and McCain are both trending upwards. To maintain my record of flawed predictions: McCain. And I expect McCain to win the big Super Tuesday states.
Meanwhile, the Democratic primaries are simply weird. Florida votes don't count, since Florida lost its delegates for having an early primary. So who cares? Not Obama, who's focusing on South Carolina. Clinton wins Florida by a lot. (Edwards is still third.) Meanwhile, Obama clearly wins South Carolina, but he's supposed to do that, so will people care? I dunno. The only drama there is whether or not Edwards overtakes Clinton for second place, which seems unlikely. In fact, I predict it doesn't happen.
After that it's Super Tuesday. Clinton has huge leads in New York, New Jersey, and California. Obama ought to do well in Illinois, but that's 153 delegates compared to the 709 represented by the other three states. Excellent showings in the southern states help make up for that, but not enough.
Which means I don't see how Obama can come out of Super Tuesday on top barring very sudden changes in the landscape over the next week and a half. Which can happen, but... unlikely.
Thus: McCain vs. Clinton in the general, with a moderate degree of confidence. Will revise post-Florida.
