![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Turns out the Sharpton fire was just an overloaded extension cord. My cynicism was unwarranted, too. I'm glad.
Jan. 23rd, 2003
OK, I think I figured this one out. And you thought I'd forgotten all about it...
Without further ado, the Population: One two axis predictive political graph.
Axis one is still freedom vs. safety. Which matters more in your personal calculus? Will you give up safety for freedom, or vice versa?
Axis two is privileged position vs. one among many. Do you think that your club/state/nation/special interest group has a privileged position vis a vis the rest of the world, for whatever reason? If so, perhaps you think God granted said status; perhaps you think it's been earned by means of a sterling diplomatic record. The question is whether or not you think it exists, not why it exists.
The inspiration for the fine-tuning of axis two was Glenn Reynolds, who with a straight face recently commented on the resentments California arrogance engenders elsewhere. I think the parallel he's making works in both directions, though.
This article is about the funniest parody I've read in some time, and makes it mercilessly clear why you can't just invert protest numbers to determine the number of people who support the status quo.
It's pretty obvious, by the by, that the numbers of people protesting are important. You can tell, because people who support whatever's being protested generally aim for the low end of the possible range. Nathan Newman makes an interesting argument against mass protests (link via Electrolite), but I don't think the math is as simple as he does. A really sizable protest makes it psychologically easier for those who might support the cause but be uncertain of themselves to come out the next time; humans have a lot of herd animal in them. It'd be nice if it were otherwise, and perhaps someday, but right now? Perceptions of numbers matter.
Thus, protestors will always estimate high, and anti-protestors will always estimate low.