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[bryant]

Huh, my predictions weren’t too bad. Kerry took 40% of the votes in Wisconsin; Edwards took 34%, and Dean took 18%. I underestimated the Edwards surge again. The undecided voters went for Edwards in a big way.

This is no doubt energizing for the Edwards campaign; he’ll be in at least until March 10th. Super Tuesday will tell us a lot. He’s not going to take on Dean as his Vice President, and if he does he’ll lose — you don’t want a VP who’s going to draw controversy and in some ways outshine you. Dean will also have more influence if he converts his campaign into a 527 and becomes a political center for grassroots populism, so I’m not sure Dean would bite on that either.

When expectations for the March 10th primaries settle, Edwards will know what he needs to do to sustain his candidacy.

Comments

[carelessflight.livejournal.com]

It wasn't just the undecided voters -- it was also the independents and crossover Republicans. There's a lot of votes out there for someone who isn't Skull and Bones, apparently.

Kerry, as far as I can tell, combines the dogged, ruthless campaigning style of Gray Davis with the personal charm and charisma of Gray Davis. He wins each primary by virtue of having won the previous one less than a week before, and no one having had a chance to break into the news cycle in the meantime.

Edwards, though, seems to be able to exert mind control over every crowd that actually listens to him. Thinking about the two Democrats who were elected president in my lifetime, and what all they had in common when they were first running... hm... Southern, optimism, joy in the process, able to energize a crowd...

Re:

[bryant]

Kerry is a darned sight more formidable than that. His victory in Iowa was not an accident -- he tends to get very very energized when he's fighting from behind.

Put differently: Kerry is the guy who was able to take on the presumptive nominee and win. Not Gephardt, who was the local favorite -- the "Northeastern liberal."

The picture of Kerry as a dull campaigner is about as accurate as the picture of Dean as an angry campaigner. Media distorts.

Re:

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Kerry, as far as I can tell, combines the dogged, ruthless campaigning style of Gray Davis with the personal charm and charisma of Gray Davis. He wins each primary by virtue of having won the previous one less than a week before, and no one having had a chance to break into the news cycle in the meantime.

Oh, a good belly laugh after a meal aids digestion... thanks.

Regarding Edwards, the word you're looking for is "telegenic".