[Population: One] <A HREF="http://popone.innocence.com/ar

[bryant]

Says Hugh Hewitt:

... the weakness of Kerrry as a candidate is obvious from the fact that it has now been 38 days since Kerry sat down on camera with a major figure from American journalism for an in-depth interview that would be certain to bring up Kerry's whoppers about his Vietnam service.

I see. And the last Bush on-camera interview with a major figure from American journalism was... when? Larry King, on August 12th? So that'd be 26 days ago or so.

We now know the official difference between weak candidates and strong candidates. If you don't do interviews for 26 days, that's OK -- but if you go 12 days further, well, that's weakness.

Comments

[bryant]

Roughly 75%. Bush got a small convention bounce, but the scandals are just rolling in by the busload. The Plame affair is still lurking, and Doug Feith is under more and more pressure from the FBI Israeli spy investigation.

It doesn't help that American deaths in Iraq just hit 1,000. The situation in Iraq is going to take more than two months to untangle, and the recent show of force in Fallujah is not gonna do the trick.

The recent reorg in Kerry's campaign HQ is also a good sign. People are taking it as a sign that the Clintonistas are taking over, but this is inaccurate -- the two most significant changes are John Sasso coming in and Michael Whouley moving to the DNC. Those guys are old-school Massachusetts campaign men, two of the very best in the business. I have long believed that Dukakis lost because he fired John Sasso in the middle of his campaign, and Michael Whouley is directly responsible for Kerry's win in Iowa. These guys are knife-fighters and they know how to win and they are Kerry's guys, not Clinton's people (although they have both worked for Clinton).

It's going to be a brutal two months but Kerry has a distinct edge.

[patchworkkid.livejournal.com]

Cool, thanks for the info. Again, I hope you're right.

According to the map at:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry needs 270 to win and it looks like Bush is riding roughshod over the whole country. You think it's temporary, then?

[bryant]

Well, I'm dropping it to 65% as of today. I think the memos are going to hurt.

[patchworkkid.livejournal.com]

Argh...

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

electoral-vote's methodology seems a bit ad hoc (but it's all ad hoc when it comes to estimating electoral votes based on polls, i know). I like http://spacerad.com/electoral/ better, but that doesn't look much more encouraging.