"What If McCain Wins Pennsylvania?"

[bryant]

Please read this. Or if you won't, read the last two paragraphs:

What power, if any, do you, as a rank and file person, have over this scenario? The answer is simple: That narrative depends on your panic and the reappearance of Chicken Little-ism on the Obama side of the barricades, and on his troops taking the election for granted and not redoubling efforts for the final push, particularly in Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, and, yes, even in Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Maine's Second CD.

In other words, the gambit may get some media traction, but it can't work unless it instills panic and anger (over the heightened racial arson to be attempted) in Obama's supporters in a way that knocks the field organization off it's game. It can only work if you fall for it and become its unwitting dupe and participant.

Then catch up on Nate Silver's analysis, with this conclusion:

What is the key phrase in that passage? "Anticipates good news". As in, the McCain campaign does not have any particular idea how they're going to win Pennsylvania, nor why the public polls have the state wrong -- they're just hoping their numbers are right, and hoping that something comes together for them.

Comments

[chaoticmoth.livejournal.com]

I want to believe, I really do. And the logical part of my brain says that all things are pointing to an Obama win.

My irrational emotional Red-Sox-fan part of my brain that is still waiting for the 2004 World Series to be overturned on a technicality can't stop picturing the "what if McCain wins" scenario.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

I take umbrage with this:

It can only work if you fall for it and become its unwitting dupe and participant.

No. It can only work if they get away with it. The GOP isn't going to suppress Obama's GOTV. That's a fait accompli. What they may get away with is not allowing those people to vote, or not allowing their votes to be counted.

This can only work if Obama doesn't fight back. I'm hoping that since he's already started to deploy lawyers and election monitors, he won't pull a Gore or Kerry.

[mcurry.livejournal.com]

Obama's already got the lawyers ready to go (see this Daily Kos story), so I think he'll be much better covered on that front than either Gore or Kerry.

[bryant]

You're right in that the GOP will do what it does. But what Al's talking about is part of the GOP vote suppression narrative. In order for vote suppression to work, the GOP must create the illusion that the election is tight to begin with. If we get all doom and gloom at this stage of the game, we're helping create that illusion.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

And they also need to create the illusion that there are serious doubts about the validity of the voting. Enter ACORN.

I still contend that by trying to suss out the enemy's strategy, I am not being 'doom and gloom'.

[telepresence.livejournal.com]

I'm amused because the McCain campaign is banking on their internal polling of being down only 6 or 7 points is so much better than the national narrative that he's down 9 or 10.

[editswlonghair.livejournal.com]

He's got us "right where he wants us" ;)

[bryant]

If that was all you were doing, I'd agree.

But you're also saying "and it will work." Which is /part of their strategy/. You're doing exactly what McCain would like you to do.

[telepresence.livejournal.com]

Speaking as a native Pennsylvanian, let me say I'm not worried about PA. Philadelphia will go big for Obama. Western PA, who knows, let's say it'll go big for McCain, it went big for Bush. That leaves the relatively densely populated Philly suburbs, which is chock full of conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans and a lot of politically active women. Bucks county, Montgomery county. Those areas will go Obama. You have to trust me on this.

[bryant]

Matches my expectation. Pennsylvania hasn't gone Republican since Bush I.