My fairly conservative map

[bryant]

Since someone promised to track predictions...

Florida reverts to McCain -- polling is tightening there. Ohio goes red again, which I think is less likely but this is my pessimistic map. Pennsylvania stays blue, just as it has for a generation. (Why? Biden, because when people criticize him for slips of the tongue, they're just reinforcing his connection to those who dislike elitism; and the expected Philadelphia turnout.)

Virginia goes blue. Having a Democratic governor helps; having the most popular politician in the state on the Democratic ballot helps; unwise comments about "real Virginia" helps.

Here's the Pollster.com trend for Virginia:

The Mason-Dixon poll shows the race very tight, but it's a distinct outlier. Zogby is doing his usual Internet polling -- he's been inaccurate all election. I'm comfortable with predicting Virginia as a Democratic pickup.

Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are almost unimportant at that point, but: McCain blew Colorado by suggesting that it was time to renegotiate the Colorado River Compact. Don't touch the third rail. That's an oversimplification, of course, but it's a touchy issue up there. New Mexico and Colorado are also helped by the presence of an Udall on both state ballots (both running for Senator). It's a popular family in Western politics, and both the Udalls have campaigned for Obama. Also Richardson, New Mexico generally goes Democratic, etc. etc. Come to think of it, Colorado has a Democratic governor as well.

Nevada's the reach among those three, I think. Still, I'm always happier when I stick in a reach or two. Color me optimistic about Hispanic turnout.

Edit: stuffing this in here because I don't want to pile on. The Nevada Secretary of State just ruled in favor of maximizing the number of people who can vote.

Comments

[shadowflyer.livejournal.com]

...and the trend of bigger turnout meaning better Democratic results makes Nevada that much less of a reach. Very nice.

[bdeakin.livejournal.com]

I'm the same, but flipping NV for OH.

[bryant]

That wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[shiffer.livejournal.com]

This is the most recent political post in the circle, therefor I am required by internet law to bring this to your attention.

[totient]

if VA is far enough in Obama's column for the networks to call it early, it'll affect voting in Western states. That reinforces the idea of Nevada going for Obama as the Republicans get demoralized, but it could throw North Dakota and Montana to Obama as well. He was leading in ND and close in Montana until McCain picked Palin as a running mate; her bounce there was huge. But Palin's bounce generally is playing out and the polls in the empty West are returning to their July numbers. The race will be close there and it won't take much to push those states into the blue column; Obama winning VA decisively could be it.

[bryant]

Yeah, ND and Montana are in my overwhelming victory map. (Also Georgia.) Which is unlikely, but I keep remembering that the Democratic Party won majority status in the Senate based on an overwhelming victory map that felt equally unlikely on the day of the election.