My fairly conservative map
Oct. 22nd, 2008 06:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
bryantSince someone promised to track predictions...
Florida reverts to McCain -- polling is tightening there. Ohio goes red again, which I think is less likely but this is my pessimistic map. Pennsylvania stays blue, just as it has for a generation. (Why? Biden, because when people criticize him for slips of the tongue, they're just reinforcing his connection to those who dislike elitism; and the expected Philadelphia turnout.)
Virginia goes blue. Having a Democratic governor helps; having the most popular politician in the state on the Democratic ballot helps; unwise comments about "real Virginia" helps.
Here's the Pollster.com trend for Virginia:
The Mason-Dixon poll shows the race very tight, but it's a distinct outlier. Zogby is doing his usual Internet polling -- he's been inaccurate all election. I'm comfortable with predicting Virginia as a Democratic pickup.
Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are almost unimportant at that point, but: McCain blew Colorado by suggesting that it was time to renegotiate the Colorado River Compact. Don't touch the third rail. That's an oversimplification, of course, but it's a touchy issue up there. New Mexico and Colorado are also helped by the presence of an Udall on both state ballots (both running for Senator). It's a popular family in Western politics, and both the Udalls have campaigned for Obama. Also Richardson, New Mexico generally goes Democratic, etc. etc. Come to think of it, Colorado has a Democratic governor as well.
Nevada's the reach among those three, I think. Still, I'm always happier when I stick in a reach or two. Color me optimistic about Hispanic turnout.
Edit: stuffing this in here because I don't want to pile on. The Nevada Secretary of State just ruled in favor of maximizing the number of people who can vote.
Florida reverts to McCain -- polling is tightening there. Ohio goes red again, which I think is less likely but this is my pessimistic map. Pennsylvania stays blue, just as it has for a generation. (Why? Biden, because when people criticize him for slips of the tongue, they're just reinforcing his connection to those who dislike elitism; and the expected Philadelphia turnout.)
Virginia goes blue. Having a Democratic governor helps; having the most popular politician in the state on the Democratic ballot helps; unwise comments about "real Virginia" helps.
Here's the Pollster.com trend for Virginia:
The Mason-Dixon poll shows the race very tight, but it's a distinct outlier. Zogby is doing his usual Internet polling -- he's been inaccurate all election. I'm comfortable with predicting Virginia as a Democratic pickup.
Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are almost unimportant at that point, but: McCain blew Colorado by suggesting that it was time to renegotiate the Colorado River Compact. Don't touch the third rail. That's an oversimplification, of course, but it's a touchy issue up there. New Mexico and Colorado are also helped by the presence of an Udall on both state ballots (both running for Senator). It's a popular family in Western politics, and both the Udalls have campaigned for Obama. Also Richardson, New Mexico generally goes Democratic, etc. etc. Come to think of it, Colorado has a Democratic governor as well.
Nevada's the reach among those three, I think. Still, I'm always happier when I stick in a reach or two. Color me optimistic about Hispanic turnout.
Edit: stuffing this in here because I don't want to pile on. The Nevada Secretary of State just ruled in favor of maximizing the number of people who can vote.
no subject
Date: 2008-10-23 07:50 pm (UTC)