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[bryant]

Baddish news on the UN front, from my point of view. Well, potentially bad. France, Germany, and Russia are working on a Security Council resolution which would do a number of things none of which include sanctioning a war on Iraq. It does include peacekeepers, which is interesting. Powell is upset that he learned about it from a press report. Takes respect to give respect, which Powell no doubt knows but he's gotta register a complaint anyhow.

I regard this as potentially bad because I would like to see the Security Council agree on something, and increased divisiveness between the various factions ain't gonna help anything. On the other hand, there's a distinct possibility that this is a diplomatic ploy. The countries wanting something other than a US-led non-sanctioned war on Iraq haven't had any coherent counter-proposal yet. If the Security Council winds up considering something like this, it gives in particular Turkey and the rest of the potential US allies in the region something to rally behind.

As Bush has demonstrated with his aggressive diplomacy vis a vis Saddam, it helps to have a stick. A resolution which might sap support for the US is definitely a stick. The question in my mind, however, is whether there's a carrot in the other hand. Hope so.

Comments

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

I'd like to see some evidence of a carrot, too. Shrub, Jr. seems to feel about carrots the way his father felt about broccoli, though. Of course, one reason to keep quiet about the carrot is that it's undoubtedly going to involve giving Iraq money to rebuild what war and poverty have done to the country, and Bush seems much more likely to be enthusiastic about a new restitution demand. After all, after the Gulf War, his Daddy got the UN to demand restitution from Iraq. (It worked so well in 1918, you know.)

The whole 'you didn't consult us first' bit irritates me, too. We have to stop thinking of allies as children who need parental permission to have ideas or interests other than those their parent condones.

[bryant]

Well, France and Germany need a carrot here too (if they're using this proposal as a stick, which I think is the case). While it's satisfying to say "Bush has no carrot, thus we will have no carrot" it further lowers the chances of any accomodation being reached.