[Population: One] <A HREF="http://popone.innocence.com/ar

[bryant]

Well, that was unexpected and I have no explanation. Ohio is within the polling margin of error, so I'm disappointed but not shocked. The 5% margin in Florida is surprising. Possibly I should have been paying attention to Gallup. The interesting question for me, right now, is how the pollsters failed to catch a chunk of Bush voters, cause Florida wasn't even close. And Zogby's not gonna have quite as many clients next cycle. Ah, the perils of being a celebrity pollster. Then again, I seem to have made similar mistakes.

(t.rev, this is your cue to tell me that polls aren't worth buckets of warm spit, and you will be correct.)

I suspect that when the votes are all counted, we'll have a clear winner, which is good. Also, the Redskins predictive effect is now gone, which is a small comfort. Other than that, well, I'll give Bush a clean slate and we'll see what happens over the course of the next year. But let's be real -- he's likely to lose me with the first Supreme Court appointment. Unless it's Posner, which I could possibly get used to.

Comments

[shadowflyer.livejournal.com]

Two words.

Die. Bold.

I'm waiting for the fraud investigation stories to hit the next news cycle.

[bryant]

That's kinda goofy. Look at the big picture. Bunning didn't win in Kentucky because of e-votes; ditto Thune in South Dakota. There is a fairly clear tilt going on here.

Up until this election, I didn't actually buy into the theory that the country was tilting conservative. Reagan had two terms, sure, but Bush 41 was a one-termer and -- assuming the Democrat won in 2004 -- things still seemed pretty balanced. I don't believe that anymore. Yes, the tilt has been assisted by gerrymandering, particularly in the House of Reps, but as a whole the progressive left is in a distinct minority in this country.

What happens next, I dunno. I'm not in terror of it, because I believe that trends can change. I'll be posting more on this later, no doubt.

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

It's been argued that HW only lost in `92 due to Perot's influence.

Also, i don't think this election confirms a conservative tilt. Bush's administration has not been conservative.

And how can you give Bush a clean slate?

[bryant]

Costs me nothing to give him a clean slate. I am not gonna have another chance to deny him re-election, so there's no point in worrying about the first four years. I don't trust him, but I don't trust politicians in general -- my lack of trust does not rely on anything he's done so far.

[r-ness.livejournal.com]

Also, the Redskins predictive effect is now gone, which is a small comfort.

Why is it a comfort that the predictive effect is gone?

[bryant]

Cause it's kinda goofy and irrational and I'm down on curses after reading about the history of the Curse of the Bambino.

Also I don't really like political reporters trying to figure out football every four years.