Post-Florida

[bryant]

No revision necessary. Clinton won Florida, as did McCain. Giuliani is dropping out. Huckabee is broke. Giuliani endorses McCain, cementing his position in New York. And McCain is doing great among military voters, which should help in the south. Super Tuesday will be a coronation barring very unexpected events.

And on the Democratic side -- you know, Obama's won as many or more delegates as Clinton in every state so far? Strange world; but I don't think we can complain that Iowa and New Hampshire are picking our candidates this year. It's going to come down to California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Georgia, and so on. In about that order. I'm still calling it for Clinton.

Comments

[head58.livejournal.com]

Do we have any sense at this point of what the superdelegates will do to the picture?

[cityofbeige.livejournal.com]

Last I heard, they were in favor of Clinton. The candidacy could very well be the fate of the superdelegates... which I think is bullshit. Why do they get more power again?

[head58.livejournal.com]

Also, with Edwards is dropping out today I wonder if that will move his supporters more toward Obama. I would tend to think so.

[bryant]

I think so too. I hadn't expected him to drop out so quickly, but it benefits Obama more even if he's not endorsing anyone yet.

[bryant]

I think in practice they won't matter -- if Obama miraculously wins more delegates on Super Tuesday and takes the emotional lead, the superdelegates aren't going to change that. Bad PR, if nothing else.

[telepresence.livejournal.com]

My only hope is that the SuperDuperTuesday delegate count will be close, since I don't think any of it is winner take all. I'd like to believe most of the Edwards people would gravitate to Obama, but enh.

*sadface*

[halfway-back.livejournal.com]

I think there are some major cards to play in the Democratic race; Richardson and Edwards have yet to endorse. And with Kennedy and Sebelius endorsing Obama, it makes me think two things: (1) the Democratic party is really that divided; or (2) endorsing Obama is safer than endorsing Clinton if Obama comes up short. Endorsing the underdog and then having him come up short versus endorsing the divisive figure and having her go on the general election.

Or something like that. I'm rushing to get this done before I head out to the reference desk. =P

Oh, with McCain emerging as the most likely to nomination, there will probably be a move to narrow it down to one candidate. In which case, the American voter loses again.

[dcltdw]

Okay, it's true that I haven't been paying attention.

Is McCain that close to clinching the Republican nomination? Last I heard, it was still too close to call.

[bryant]

Yep. He's leading in all the major delegate states for Super Tuesday, and he won Florida fairly convincingly. His only disadvantage is Romney's personal wealth, which enables Romney to buy as many ads as he wants.

I don't think it'll be mathematically clinched after Super Tuesday, but it'll be practically clinched.

[death-by-monkey.livejournal.com]

Yeah, thanks to Florida's "winner-take-all" delegate distribution, McCain just went from trailing Romney by 34 delegates to leading him by over 20.

[st-rev.livejournal.com]

The ideal outcome from the Republican standpoint would be Obama to lead going into the convention and Clinton to win via superdelegates.

That would cripple the Dems, and they'd deserve it.

[tayefeth.livejournal.com]

Yeah, that. Which is why I really hope we Democrats don't nominate Clinton. I'd love to join the marginally-civilized world and have a woman head-of-state for once, but I'm much more interested in a head-of-state who doesn't go around calling other countries' militaries terrorist organizations.